Business company: polyacrylamide slightly lowered in July, looking forward to the recovery of market demand


Commodity index: The polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89 on July 31, unchanged from yesterday and a record low in the cycle, down 22.63% from the highest point of 107.13 points on May 08, 2019. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to present)
Price market: Monitoring data shows that polyacrylamide in July showed a slight downward trend compared with the market at the end of June. Many lowered prices in the first half of the month, and the overall range was not very large; In the second half of the month, the number of price adjustment enterprises became smaller, but the adjustment of individual enterprises adjusted prices was greater, which was different from the first half of the month. On July 1, 2020, the mainstream quotation of the market was 13960 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 14020 yuan / ton on June 30, and the quotation on the 14th of this month was about 13920 yuan / ton, which was about 40 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of this month, and slightly decreased by 0.29% in the first half of this month, but the decrease was 0.71% from the end of last month; In the second half of the month, the quotation on the 16th was 13600 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the 31st was 13566.67 yuan / ton, and the reduction in the half month was very small, less than 1%.
Factor analysis:
First of all, the perspective of the industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: From January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to pull back to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it began to stop falling at 6350 yuan / ton, after stabilizing for half a month, since May to open the road of rebound, the half-month quotation rose about 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, it was stable at about 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, and continued to rise to a maximum of about 8800-8900 yuan / ton in the second half of the month, and then pulled back, and the mainstream stopped at 8400 yuan / ton by the end of the month. Entering July, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall, to the 13th, the price of this month has fallen by about 1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation has fallen to 7300 yuan / ton; In the second half of the month, the price has been corrected one after another, especially at the end of the month, it has been chasing up continuously, and it was reported at 7600 yuan / ton on the 31st. Among them, Fushun Petrochemical's 92,000 tons/year acrylonitrile was stopped for maintenance on July 23, and resumed on July 28, and the construction was started to maintain around 80%. 2 Shandong Haijiang Chemical's 130,000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant is scheduled to stop from early August, or last for about a month. Shanghai SECCO Acrylonitrile Plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3,000 tons. The Srpon acrylonitrile plant was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart around August 5. Japan's Asahi Kasei Corporation August Far East contract advocate price execution of 1090 US dollars / ton CFR, down 50 US dollars / ton from the previous month. Downstream demand: polyacrylamide demand this year has not improved so far, manufacturers sales pressure, affected by the comprehensive impact of demand and cost, many polyacrylamide manufacturers this month so far the price has been slightly lowered month-on-month.
Secondly, the manufacturer's production angle. The survey found that one of the main production areas of polyacrylamide - Henan area manufacturers normal production, high inventory, the main specifications of products on July 1 there were a number of price reductions, although the range is small, but the number of price adjusters is more, in the first half of the month some manufacturers have two small reductions, some manufacturers prices remain stable, the number of price adjustments in the second half of the month decreased, but some enterprises adjusted the price range, but adjusted down and adjusted back to the sales strategy. Current price: cation: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionization) quotation 13000-15000 yuan / ton; Anion: molecular weight 10 million quotation 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million quotation 7800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles quotation 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles quotation 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles quotation 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18-20 million powder quotation 12000-12500 yuan / ton / Ton; Non-ionic: quotation of 12000-13000 yuan / ton; Overall, manufacturers generally have a reduction of about 100-200 yuan / ton at the lowest price position, and the overall quotation has been reduced by different ranges, and some specifications of individual manufacturers have been lowered by 1,000 yuan per ton. The sales pressure of enterprise production and distribution manufacturers is huge, and they are helpless for the current situation, and the price downside is very small.
Again, the industry perspective. Since 2020, the environmental protection water treatment industry has been poor. From the Spring Festival holiday in January to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production areas suspended production and delayed the resumption of work. After February 20, manufacturers in the main producing areas gradually resumed work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, manufacturers survived normally, and some lower raw material costs and weak demand led to higher inventories. On May 6, the national high-speed resumption of charging, acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose in price, the ex-factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and the inventory was more; With the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile in the "propylene-PP-meltblown cloth-mask" industrial chain relationship, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers has declined this month, which has more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile prices. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was first sharply reduced, the cost of polyacrylamide was reduced, some companies lowered the price of products, and then rebounded continuously in the second half of the month, but the price of manufacturers did not change significantly; In fact, most manufacturers hoard raw materials, the cost of their purchase determines the price cost, the impact on production costs is also different, as far as the entire industry is concerned, cost reduction, demand difference is to determine the trend of the market, this month the market is still stable and weak.
Future Market Forecast:
Business analysts believe that so far this month, the cost has risen first, the demand side has not improved greatly, the development of the water treatment industry in the second half of the year is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable, with a small flexible adjustment. With the expected economic situation in the third quarter, the recovery of demand in the water treatment industry can also be expected.
Source: Business Press




demand, quotation, manufacturer, downward adjustment, price, left and right, acrylonitrile, July, half month, this month